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Attacker profiling in quantitative security assessment based on attack trees

机译:基于攻击树的定量安全评估中的攻击者配置

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摘要

We present the results of research of limiting adversarial budget in attack games, and, in particular, in the failure-free attack tree models presented by Buldas-Stepanenko in 2012 and improved in 2013 by Buldas and Lenin. In the previously presented models attacker’s budget was assumed to be unlimited. It is natural to assume that the adversarial budget is limited and such an assumption would allow us to model the adversarial decision making more close to the one that might happen in real life. We analyze three atomic cases – the single atomic case, the atomic AND, and the atomic OR. Even these elementary cases become quite complex, at the same time, limiting adversarial budget does not seem to provide any better or more precise results compared to the failure-free models. For the limited model analysis results to be reliable, it is required that the adversarial reward is estimated with high precision, probably not achievable by providing expert estimations for the quantitative annotations on the attack steps, such as the cost or the success probability. It is doubtful that it is reasonable to face this com- plexity, as the failure-free model provides reliable upper bounds, being at the same time computationally less complex.
机译:我们介绍了在攻击游戏中限制对抗性预算的研究结果,尤其是在2012年由Buldas-Stepanenko提出并在2013年由Buldas和Lenin改进的无故障攻击树模型中。在先前介绍的模型中,假定攻击者的预算是无限的。很自然地假设对抗性预算是有限的,这样的假设将使我们能够对对抗性决策进行建模,使其更接近现实生活中可能发生的决策。我们分析了三种原子情况–单原子情况,原子“与”和原子“或”。即使这些基本情况变得非常复杂,同时,与无故障模型相比,限制对抗性预算似乎也无法提供任何更好或更精确的结果。为了使有限的模型分析结果可靠,需要以很高的精度估算对抗性报酬,这可能无法通过提供针对攻击步骤的定量注释的专家估算(例如成本或成功概率)来实现。面对这种复杂性是否合理是值得怀疑的,因为无故障模型提供了可靠的上限,同时在计算上也没有那么复杂。

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